Climate change: China drives increase in global coal-fired power capacity amid building boom, slow retirement, study says

China drove a global surge in new coal-fired power plants last year, building and approving capacity at a rate not seen in nine years despite the country’s promise to “strictly control” its use of the most damaging fossil fuel, according to a new report.

Despite retiring 21.1GW of coal capacity in 2023, the world’s net annual capacity increased by 2 per cent or 48.4GW due to China slowing down its coal plant retirement and adding new capacity, GEM said.

“The recent surge in coal-power development in China starkly contrasts with the global trend, putting China’s 2025 climate targets at risk,” said Qin Qi, China analyst of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which jointly published the report.

China also started construction of an additional 70.2GW of new coal-power capacity in 2023, which accounts for 95 per cent of the construction started worldwide and represents the country’s fastest pace of groundbreaking since 2015, according to GEM. Most Chinese provinces saw new coal proposals and developments, and very few saw retirements, the study found.

“At this pivotal juncture, it is crucial for China to impose stricter controls on coal-power projects and expedite the transition towards renewable energy to realign with its climate commitments,” Qin said.

The world’s largest consumer and producer of coal, China has accounted for more than half of global consumption since 2011, according to the International Energy Agency.

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The country planned to retire 30GW of coal power by 2025, according to the National Energy Administration in 2022. However, China only retired about 3.7GW of its operating coal capacity in 2023, GEM found.

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China can still meet its climate targets for 2025, but it will require “immediate and determined action”, said Flora Champenois, coal programme director for GEM.

The Chinese government must strictly enforce the policy of only granting permits for coal power that supports clean power infrastructure and should also review permits that have been already granted, the report said. Beijing should continue to deploy clean energy and energy storage to control coal consumption while carrying out electricity market reforms to reduce the need for “supporting” coal power, it said.

Outside China, new construction of coal power has slowed considerably, with 2023 hitting the lowest level since 2015, the year GEM started keeping records.

To meet the goal of phasing out current coal capacity by 2040, the world must retire an average of 126GW each year for the next 17 years – the equivalent of about two coal plants per week. But considering that 578GW of coal plants are currently under construction, even steeper annual cuts will be required, according to GEM.